Multi-omic longitudinal study reveals immune correlates of clinical course among hospitalized COVID-19 patients.

The IMPACC cohort, composed of >1,000 hospitalized COVID-19 participants, contains five illness trajectory groups (TGs) during acute infection (first 28 days), ranging from milder (TG1-3) to more severe disease course (TG4) and death (TG5). Here, we report deep immunophenotyping, profiling of >15,000 longitudinal blood and nasal samples from 540 participants of the IMPACC cohort, using 14 distinct assays. These unbiased analyses identify cellular and molecular signatures present within 72 h of hospital admission that distinguish moderate from severe and fatal COVID-19 disease. Importantly, cellular and molecular states also distinguish participants with more severe disease that recover or stabilize within 28 days from those that progress to fatal outcomes (TG4 vs. TG5). Furthermore, our longitudinal design reveals that these biologic states display distinct temporal patterns associated with clinical outcomes. Characterizing host immune responses in relation to heterogeneity in disease course may inform clinical prognosis and opportunities for intervention.

Towards a global virus genomic surveillance network

The COVID-19 pandemic galvanized the field of virus genomic surveillance, demonstrating its utility for public health. Now, we must harness the momentum that led to increased infrastructure, training, and political will to build a sustainable global genomic surveillance network for other epidemic and endemic viruses. We suggest a generalizable modular sequencing framework wherein users can easily switch between virus targets to maximize cost-effectiveness and maintain readiness for new threats. We also highlight challenges associated with genomic surveillance, and when global inequalities persist. We propose solutions to mitigate some of these issues, including training and multilateral partnerships. Exploring alternatives to clinical sequencing can also reduce the cost of surveillance programs. Finally, we discuss how establishing genomic surveillance would aid control programs and potentially provide a warning system for outbreaks, using a global respiratory virus (RSV), an arbovirus (dengue virus), and a regional zoonotic virus (Lassa virus) as examples. Following technological advancements from past emergencies, global virus genomic surveillance increased to unprecedented levels during the COVID-19 pandemic. In their Perspective, Hill et all examine this infrastructure and discuss the importance of developing sustainable global genomic surveillance networks for other epidemic and endemic viruses to inform public health decision making.

Toward a global virus genomic surveillance network.

The COVID-19 pandemic galvanized the field of virus genomic surveillance, demonstrating its utility for public health. Now, we must harness the momentum that led to increased infrastructure, training, and political will to build a sustainable global genomic surveillance network for other epidemic and endemic viruses. We suggest a generalizable modular sequencing framework wherein users can easily switch between virus targets to maximize cost-effectiveness and maintain readiness for new threats. We also highlight challenges associated with genomic surveillance and when global inequalities persist. We propose solutions to mitigate some of these issues, including training and multilateral partnerships. Exploring alternatives to clinical sequencing can also reduce the cost of surveillance programs. Finally, we discuss how establishing genomic surveillance would aid control programs and potentially provide a warning system for outbreaks, using a global respiratory virus (RSV), an arbovirus (dengue virus), and a regional zoonotic virus (Lassa virus) as examples.

Powassan Virus Lineage I in Field-Collected Dermacentor variabilis Ticks, New York, USA.

Powassan virus is a tickborne flavivirus that can cause lethal or debilitating neurologic illness. It is canonically transmitted by Ixodes spp. ticks but might spill over to sympatric Dermacentor species. We detected Powassan virus lineage I from a pool of field-collected D. variabilis ticks in New York, USA.

Routine saliva testing for SARS-CoV-2 in children: Methods for partnering with community childcare centers.

While considerable attention was placed on SARS-CoV-2 testing and surveillance programs in the K-12 setting, younger age groups in childcare centers were largely overlooked. Childcare facilities are vital to communities, allowing parents/guardians to remain at work and providing safe environments for both children and staff. Therefore, early in the COVID-19 pandemic (October 2020), we established a PCR-based COVID-19 surveillance program in childcare facilities, testing children and staff with the goal of collecting actionable public health data and aiding communities in the progressive resumption of standard operations and ways of life. In this study we describe the development of a weekly saliva testing program and provide early results from our experience implementing this in childcare centers. We enrolled children (aged 6 months to 7 years) and staff at seven childcare facilities and trained participants in saliva collection using video chat technology. Weekly surveys were sent out to assess exposures, symptoms, and vaccination status changes. Participants submitted weekly saliva samples at school. Samples were transported to a partnering clinical laboratory or RT-PCR testing using SalivaDirect and results were uploaded to each participant's online patient portal within 24 h. SARS-CoV-2 screening and routine testing programs have focused less on the childcare population, resulting in knowledge gaps in this critical age group, especially as many are still ineligible for vaccination. SalivaDirect testing for SARS-CoV-2 provides a feasible method of asymptomatic screening and symptomatic testing for children and childcare center staff. Given the relative aversion to nasal swabs in younger age groups, an at-home saliva collection method provides an attractive alternative, especially as a routine surveillance tool. Results can be shared rapidly electronically through participants' private medical chart portals, and video chat technology allows for discussion and instruction between investigators and participants. This study fosters a cooperative partnership with participating childcare centers, parents/guardians, and staff with the goal of mitigating COVID-19 transmission in childcare centers. Age-related challenges in saliva collection can be overcome by working with parents/guardians to conceptualize new collection strategies and by offering parents/guardians continued virtual guidance and support.

Nonsystematic Reporting Biases of the SARS-CoV-2 Variant Mu Could Impact Our Understanding of the Epidemiological Dynamics of Emerging Variants.

Developing a timely and effective response to emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) is of paramount public health importance. Global health surveillance does not rely on genomic data alone to identify concerning variants when they emerge. Instead, methods that utilize genomic data to estimate the epidemiological dynamics of emerging lineages have the potential to serve as an early warning system. However, these methods assume that genomic data are uniformly reported across circulating lineages. In this study, we analyze differences in reporting delays among SARS-CoV-2 VOCs as a plausible explanation for the timing of the global response to the former VOC Mu. Mu likely emerged in South America in mid-2020, where its circulation was largely confined. In this study, we demonstrate that Mu was designated as a VOC ∼1 year after it emerged and find that the reporting of genomic data for Mu differed significantly than that of other VOCs within countries, states, and individual laboratories. Our findings suggest that nonsystematic biases in the reporting of genomic data may have delayed the global response to Mu. Until they are resolved, the surveillance gaps that affected the global response to Mu could impede the rapid and accurate assessment of future emerging variants.

Incorporating variant frequencies data into short-term forecasting for COVID-19 cases and deaths in the USA: a deep learning approach.

BACKGROUND: Since the US reported its first COVID-19 case on January 21, 2020, the science community has been applying various techniques to forecast incident cases and deaths. To date, providing an accurate and robust forecast at a high spatial resolution has proved challenging, even in the short term. METHOD: Here we present a novel multi-stage deep learning model to forecast the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths for each US state at a weekly level for a forecast horizon of 1-4 weeks. The model is heavily data driven, and relies on epidemiological, mobility, survey, climate, demographic, and SARS-CoV-2 variant frequencies data. We implement a rigorous and robust evaluation of our model-specifically we report on weekly performance over a one-year period based on multiple error metrics, and explicitly assess how our model performance varies over space, chronological time, and different outbreak phases. FINDINGS: The proposed model is shown to consistently outperform the CDC ensemble model for all evaluation metrics in multiple spatiotemporal settings, especially for the longer-term (3 and 4 weeks ahead) forecast horizon. Our case study also highlights the potential value of variant frequencies data for use in short-term forecasting to identify forthcoming surges driven by new variants. INTERPRETATION: Based on our findings, the proposed forecasting framework improves upon the available state-of-the-art forecasting tools currently used to support public health decision making with respect to COVID-19 risk. FUNDING: This work was funded the NSF Rapid Response Research (RAPID) grant Award ID 2108526 and the CDC Contract #75D30120C09570.

Age-dependent impairment in antibody responses elicited by a homologous CoronaVac booster dose.

The emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron sublineages resulted in increased transmission rates and reduced protection from vaccines. To counteract these effects, multiple booster strategies were used in different countries, although data comparing their efficiency in improving protective immunity remain sparse, especially among vulnerable populations, including older adults. The inactivated CoronaVac vaccine was among the most widely distributed vaccine worldwide and was essential in the early control of SARS-CoV-2-related hospitalizations and deaths. However, it is not well understood whether homologous versus heterologous booster doses in those fully vaccinated with CoronaVac induce distinct humoral responses or whether these responses vary across age groups. We analyzed plasma antibody responses from CoronaVac-vaccinated younger or older individuals who received a homologous CoronaVac or heterologous BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 booster vaccine. All three evaluated boosters resulted in increased virus-specific IgG titers 28 days after the booster dose. However, we found that both IgG titers against SARS-CoV-2 Spike or RBD and neutralization titers against Omicron sublineages were substantially reduced in participants who received homologous CoronaVac compared with the heterologous BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 booster. This effect was specifically prominent in recipients >50 years of age. In this group, the CoronaVac booster induced low virus-specific IgG titers and failed to elevate neutralization titers against any Omicron sublineage. Our results point to the notable inefficiency of CoronaVac immunization and boosting in mounting protective antiviral humoral immunity, particularly among older adults, during the Omicron wave. These observations also point to benefits of heterologous regimens in high-risk populations fully vaccinated with CoronaVac.

Accelerated SARS-CoV-2 intrahost evolution leading to distinct genotypes during chronic infection

The chronic infection hypothesis for novel SARS-CoV-2 variant emergence is increasingly gaining credence following the appearance of Omicron. Here we investigate intrahost evolution and genetic diversity of lineage B.1.517 during a SARS-CoV-2 chronic infection lasting for 471 days (and still ongoing) with consistently recovered infectious virus and high viral genome copies. During the infection, we find an accelerated virus evolutionary rate translating to 35 nucleotide substitutions per year, approximately two-fold higher than the global SARS-CoV-2 evolutionary rate. This intrahost evolution result in the emergence and persistence of at least three genetically distinct genotypes suggesting the establishment of spatially structured viral populations continually reseeding different genotypes into the nasopharynx. Finally, we track the temporal dynamics of genetic diversity to identify advantageous mutations and highlight hallmark changes for chronic infection. Our findings demonstrate that untreated chronic infections accelerate SARS-CoV-2 evolution, providing an opportunity for the emergence of genetically divergent variants. Graphical To understand the intrahost evolution of SARS-CoV-2 from a single patient chronically infected for at least 471 days, Chaguza et al. use whole genome sequencing to estimate the evolutionary rate, the genetic divergence of viral lineages, relative mutation rates, and frequency of mutational variants during the course of the infection.

Genome Sequence of a Recombinant SARS-CoV-2 Lineage XAM (BA.1.1/BA.2.9) Strain from a Clinical Sample in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.

Here, we report a recombinant severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) lineage XAM (Omicron BA.1.1/BA.2.9) strain that was collected in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. This demonstrates how SARS-CoV-2 variants can vary greatly between regions and thus underlines the great importance of regional genomic surveillance efforts.

Accelerated SARS-CoV-2 intrahost evolution leading to distinct genotypes during chronic infection.

The chronic infection hypothesis for novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant emergence is increasingly gaining credence following the appearance of Omicron. Here, we investigate intrahost evolution and genetic diversity of lineage B.1.517 during a SARS-CoV-2 chronic infection lasting for 471 days (and still ongoing) with consistently recovered infectious virus and high viral genome copies. During the infection, we find an accelerated virus evolutionary rate translating to 35 nucleotide substitutions per year, approximately 2-fold higher than the global SARS-CoV-2 evolutionary rate. This intrahost evolution results in the emergence and persistence of at least three genetically distinct genotypes, suggesting the establishment of spatially structured viral populations continually reseeding different genotypes into the nasopharynx. Finally, we track the temporal dynamics of genetic diversity to identify advantageous mutations and highlight hallmark changes for chronic infection. Our findings demonstrate that untreated chronic infections accelerate SARS-CoV-2 evolution, providing an opportunity for the emergence of genetically divergent variants.

Nasal host response-based screening for undiagnosed respiratory viruses: a pathogen surveillance and detection study.

BACKGROUND: Symptomatic patients who test negative for common viruses are an important possible source of unrecognised or emerging pathogens, but metagenomic sequencing of all samples is inefficient because of the low likelihood of finding a pathogen in any given sample. We aimed to determine whether nasopharyngeal CXCL10 screening could be used as a strategy to enrich for samples containing undiagnosed viruses. METHODS: In this pathogen surveillance and detection study, we measured CXCL10 concentrations from nasopharyngeal swabs from patients in the Yale New Haven health-care system, which had been tested at the Yale New Haven Hospital Clinical Virology Laboratory (New Haven, CT, USA). Patients who tested negative for a panel of respiratory viruses using multiplex PCR during Jan 23-29, 2017, or March 3-14, 2020, were included. We performed host and pathogen RNA sequencing (RNA-Seq) and analysis for viral reads on samples with CXCL10 higher than 1 ng/mL or CXCL10 testing and quantitative RT-PCR (RT-qPCR) for SARS-CoV-2. We used RNA-Seq and cytokine profiling to compare the host response to infection in samples that were virus positive (rhinovirus, seasonal coronavirus CoV-NL63, or SARS-CoV-2) and virus negative (controls). FINDINGS: During Jan 23-29, 2017, 359 samples were tested for ten viruses on the multiplex PCR respiratory virus panel (RVP). 251 (70%) were RVP negative. 60 (24%) of 251 samples had CXCL10 higher than 150 pg/mL and were identified for further analysis. 28 (47%) of 60 CXCL10-high samples were positive for seasonal coronaviruses. 223 (89%) of 251 samples were PCR negative for 15 viruses and, of these, CXCL10-based screening identified 32 (13%) samples for further analysis. Of these 32 samples, eight (25%) with CXCL10 concentrations higher than 1 ng/mL and sufficient RNA were selected for RNA-Seq. Microbial RNA analysis showed the presence of influenza C virus in one sample and revealed RNA reads from bacterial pathobionts in four (50%) of eight samples. Between March 3 and March 14, 2020, 375 (59%) of 641 samples tested negative for 15 viruses on the RVP. 32 (9%) of 375 samples had CXCL10 concentrations ranging from 100 pg/mL to 1000 pg/mL and four of those were positive for SARS-CoV-2. CXCL10 elevation was statistically significant, and a distinguishing feature was found in 28 (8%) of 375 SARS-CoV-2-negative samples versus all four SARS-CoV-2-positive samples (p=4·4 × 10-5). Transcriptomic signatures showed an interferon response in virus-positive samples and an additional neutrophil-high hyperinflammatory signature in samples with high amounts of bacterial pathobionts. The CXCL10 cutoff for detecting a virus was 166·5 pg/mL for optimal sensitivity and 1091·0 pg/mL for specificity using a clinic-ready automated microfluidics-based immunoassay. INTERPRETATION: These results confirm CXCL10 as a robust nasopharyngeal biomarker of viral respiratory infection and support host response-based screening followed by metagenomic sequencing of CXCL10-high samples as a practical approach to incorporate clinical samples into pathogen discovery and surveillance efforts. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health, the Hartwell Foundation, the Gruber Foundation, Fast Grants for COVID-19 research from the Mercatus Center, and the Huffman Family Donor Advised Fund.

Daily Rapid Antigen Exit Testing to Tailor University COVID-19 Isolation Policy.

We evaluated daily rapid antigen test (RAT) data from 323 COVID-19-positive university students in Connecticut, USA, during an Omicron-dominant period. Day 5 positivity was 47% for twice-weekly screeners and 26%-28% for less-frequent screeners, approximately halving each subsequent day. Testing negative >10 days before diagnosis (event time ratio (ETR) 0.85 [95% CI 0.75-0.96]) and prior infection >90 days (ETR 0.50 [95% CI 0.33-0.76]) were significantly associated with shorter RAT positivity duration. Symptoms before or at diagnosis (ETR 1.13 [95% CI 1.02-1.25]) and receipt of 3 vaccine doses (ETR 1.20 [95% CI 1.04-1.39]) were significantly associated with prolonged positivity. Exit RATs enabled 53%-74% of students to leave isolation early when they began isolation at the time of the first positive test, but 15%-22% remained positive beyond the recommended isolation period. Factors associated with RAT positivity duration should be further explored to determine relationships with infection duration.

Quantifying the impact of immune history and variant on SARS-CoV-2 viral kinetics and infection rebound: A retrospective cohort study.

Background: The combined impact of immunity and SARS-CoV-2 variants on viral kinetics during infections has been unclear. Methods: We characterized 1,280 infections from the National Basketball Association occupational health cohort identified between June 2020 and January 2022 using serial RT-qPCR testing. Logistic regression and semi-mechanistic viral RNA kinetics models were used to quantify the effect of age, variant, symptom status, infection history, vaccination status and antibody titer to the founder SARS-CoV-2 strain on the duration of potential infectiousness and overall viral kinetics. The frequency of viral rebounds was quantified under multiple cycle threshold (Ct) value-based definitions. Results: Among individuals detected partway through their infection, 51.0% (95% credible interval [CrI]: 48.3-53.6%) remained potentially infectious (Ct <30) 5 days post detection, with small differences across variants and vaccination status. Only seven viral rebounds (0.7%; N=999) were observed, with rebound defined as 3+days with Ct <30 following an initial clearance of 3+days with Ct ≥30. High antibody titers against the founder SARS-CoV-2 strain predicted lower peak viral loads and shorter durations of infection. Among Omicron BA.1 infections, boosted individuals had lower pre-booster antibody titers and longer clearance times than non-boosted individuals. Conclusions: SARS-CoV-2 viral kinetics are partly determined by immunity and variant but dominated by individual-level variation. Since booster vaccination protects against infection, longer clearance times for BA.1-infected, boosted individuals may reflect a less effective immune response, more common in older individuals, that increases infection risk and reduces viral RNA clearance rate. The shifting landscape of viral kinetics underscores the need for continued monitoring to optimize isolation policies and to contextualize the health impacts of therapeutics and vaccines. Funding: Supported in part by CDC contract #200-2016-91779, a sponsored research agreement to Yale University from the National Basketball Association contract #21-003529, and the National Basketball Players Association.

Global disparities in SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance.

Genomic sequencing is essential to track the evolution and spread of SARS-CoV-2, optimize molecular tests, treatments, vaccines, and guide public health responses. To investigate the global SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance, we used sequences shared via GISAID to estimate the impact of sequencing intensity and turnaround times on variant detection in 189 countries. In the first two years of the pandemic, 78% of high-income countries sequenced >0.5% of their COVID-19 cases, while 42% of low- and middle-income countries reached that mark. Around 25% of the genomes from high income countries were submitted within 21 days, a pattern observed in 5% of the genomes from low- and middle-income countries. We found that sequencing around 0.5% of the cases, with a turnaround time <21 days, could provide a benchmark for SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance. Socioeconomic inequalities undermine the global pandemic preparedness, and efforts must be made to support low- and middle-income countries improve their local sequencing capacity.

Lineage abundance estimation for SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater using transcriptome quantification techniques.

Effectively monitoring the spread of SARS-CoV-2 mutants is essential to efforts to counter the ongoing pandemic. Predicting lineage abundance from wastewater, however, is technically challenging. We show that by sequencing SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater and applying algorithms initially used for transcriptome quantification, we can estimate lineage abundance in wastewater samples. We find high variability in signal among individual samples, but the overall trends match those observed from sequencing clinical samples. Thus, while clinical sequencing remains a more sensitive technique for population surveillance, wastewater sequencing can be used to monitor trends in mutant prevalence in situations where clinical sequencing is unavailable.

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Outbreak at a College With High Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Vaccination Coverage-Connecticut, August 2021-September 2021.

BACKGROUND: During August 2021-September 2021, a Connecticut college experienced a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Delta variant outbreak despite high (99%) vaccination coverage, indoor masking policies, and twice-weekly testing. The Connecticut Department of Public Health investigated characteristics associated with infection and phylogenetic relationships among cases. METHODS: A case was a SARS-CoV-2 infection diagnosed by a viral test during August 2021-September 2021 in a student. College staff provided enrollment and case information. An anonymous online student survey collected demographics, SARS-CoV-2 case and vaccination history, and activities preceding the outbreak. Multivariate logistic regression identified characteristics associated with infection. Phylogenetic analyses compared 115 student viral genome sequences with contemporaneous community genomes. RESULTS: Overall, 199 of 1788 students (11%) had laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection; most were fully vaccinated (194 of 199, 97%). Attack rates were highest among sophomores (72 of 414, 17%) and unvaccinated students (5 of 18, 28%). Attending in-person classes with an infectious student was not associated with infection (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], .5-2.2). Compared with uninfected students, infected students were more likely to be sophomores (aOR, 3.3; 95% CI, 1.1-10.7), attend social gatherings before the outbreak (aOR, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.3-6.4), and complete a vaccine series ≥180 days prior (aOR, 5.5; 95% CI, 1.8-16.2). Phylogenetic analyses suggested a common viral source for most cases. CONCLUSIONS: SARS-CoV-2 infection in this highly vaccinated college population was associated with unmasked off-campus social gatherings, not in-person classes. Students should stay up to date on vaccination to reduce infection.

Why does Japan have so few cases of COVID-19?

The COVID-19 pandemic has spread to many countries around the world, but the infection and death rates vary widely. One country that appeared to have kept the infection under control despite limited societal restrictions is Japan. This commentary explores why Japan may have, up to now, been spared an escalation of the SARS-CoV-2 infections.